Thank God, it’s finally here. The MLB postseason begins tomorrow at 1:08 PM my time, and I’ve been looking forward to it for a very long time. This season as a whole has been an absolute blast, with so many great memories created and crazy records set. It also helps that both of my favorite teams, the Braves and Orioles, led their respective conferences in wins, with the Braves tying the single-season record for home runs by a team with 307. They also set the new record for the highest team slugging percentage ever at .501, which is absolutely bonkers.

Going into these playoffs, there’s a lot at stake for practically every team that’s found themselves here. The Phillies are looking to prove that last year’s crazy run wasn’t a fluke, the Astros are looking to be the first repeat champion since the 2000 Yankees, and the Brewers are in danger of potentially losing many of their key players in the offseason if things go south. However, as per usual, only a single team can end up winning it all. Who will it be? I’ll tell you my answer later. First off, some random thoughts I have, plus a look at my bracket. I think I’ll finally get more than a couple series right this time!

The Braves are the easy pick to win the World Series. Can they?

A few months ago, I would have said absolutely. I had the pleasure of watching this team throughout the year, and every night I thought I had seen it all, I was reminded time and time again that I really need to stop telling myself that. Ronald Acuna Jr. created the 30 HR/60 SB club, then one-upped it with the 40 HR/70 SB club. Matt Olson smashed 54 HRs and had a better season than Freddie Freeman ever did in his 12 years with Atlanta. Spencer Strider threw over 275 strikeouts and endeared himself to Braves fans with his unbelievable fastball and bizarre sense of humor. Simply put, these Braves were, and still are, very special.

They’re screwed, however. What do I mean by that? Well, their starting pitching outside of Strider, while very good on paper, has been sluggish and injured as of late, with limited options going into their NLDS against the winner of the Marlins/Phillies series. While I do think they could dispatch the Marlins by taking advantage of their lack of power, I doubt they’d be able to get revenge on the Phillies for last year without a healthy Max Fried and Charlie Morton. While it is entirely possible the Braves just bash their way to a championship, I don’t see it being done without hot and reliable pitching, which Atlanta currently doesn’t have. It will be disappointing to see them go out early, but this core is young enough that they’ll have many more shots at another ring. Not this year, unfortunately.

Will the Astros become the first repeat champion in 23 years?

They could. But I really doubt it. This was a tough year for Houston, with multiple injuries and questionable game management costing them what was likely an easy road to yet another division title. They did end up clinching said title on the very last day of the regular season, partially thanks to their cross-state rival in Arlington shooting themselves in the foot for what seemed like the 40th time this year. The Rangers never make it easy on themselves, and their collapse during the second half is a great example of that.

Back to the Astros. Alvarez is still hitting nukes, Altuve is still killing the Yankees, and the team as a whole is still doing their thing. Ever since their much-maligned 2017 “championship”, the Astros have either made the World Series or lost in the ALCS, which almost seems to guarantee that they’re gonna be right back in there this year. While the winner of Twins/Blue Jays could certainly test them, I think Houston is far too experienced to get swept aside by either of those teams. I highly doubt they repeat, however. Their pitching, which regressed this year, as well as their dysfunctional play at home will likely cost them, whether it’s in the ALCS or World Series. My pick is the ALCS. Better luck next year, Houston.

Who wins it all?

The big question whenever the postseason comes along is always the same one: which team is gonna do it? Which team will be rewarded for their efforts and be enshrined in the halls of glory when it’s all said and done? This time around, there are quite a few choices, two of whom I mentioned above. I chose to dissect the Braves and Astros due to them not only being the two most recent champions, but the two teams with the highest betting odds to win the World Series. I should mention that I’m not a gambler, and I think the odds this time around are crap. My pick for the World Series champion, with an apparent 6.6% chance to win it, is…

The Orioles.

If you don’t follow baseball much, I’ll make this as simple as possible: from 2017 until this year, the Orioles were utterly horrendous. While they enjoyed some success during the mid-2010s, they eventually bottomed out and underwent a massive rebuild where the fans and organization endured multiple 100+ loss seasons and pain rivaled by almost no one. It began to pay off last year with the arrival of star catcher Adley Rutschman and their first season over .500 since 2016. This year was an even larger step forward, with top prospects like Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez transforming this team into a gritty juggernaut that catapulted themselves into their first 100+ win season since 1980, and their first division title since 2014. While they lack the power that teams like the Braves, Phillies and Dodgers have, they make up for it with great baserunning, stellar defense, and good pitching. They’re also set up for the future with guys like Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo likely making their debuts next year, and as someone who’s been a fan of the O’s since I started watching baseball, I’m very excited.

For their opponent, I have picked the Dodgers. They were the premiere franchise of the 2010s: unparalleled regular season success, always in the mix for the playoffs, and always loaded with stars. I picked them to win the World Series last year, being unaware of their history of choking in the NLDS. That rang true last year, when the Padres upset them in what was a great series. The excitement around them was largely tempered coming into this season, due to key players like Trea Turner leaving and their depth being in question. Then the games started being played, and even though it took them a while, they eventually looked like the same old LA that people despise. Nobody does it like the Dodgers, and even though their lack of postseason criticism is very warranted, I think they end up giving the Orioles a heck of a challenge in the Fall Classic. It would feel pretty on brand for them to go on a deep run when they’re being largely slept on.

The great thing about these playoffs is that even though I think Orioles/Dodgers is the most likely outcome, there are many different combinations which could also make for some great entertainment. Maybe the Braves disregard their pitching problems and nuke everyone. Maybe we finally get to see the teased Astros/Dodgers rematch. Maybe the Phillies do what the Royals did years ago and run it back when few think they can. Or maybe we get something absolutely bizarre like Brewers/Blue Jays. You can’t always say that about the playoffs, which is why I’m sure these games are gonna be special, regardless of the outcome. I have my biases of course, but at the end of the day, I just want to watch good baseball.

And I think I’ll get my wish.