A while ago, I talked about the expectations that we often put on those around us, and how unfair they usually are. In that post, I focused specifically on athletes, how there’s always pressure to perform when it matters most, and how we need to start acknowledging these superstars for the human beings that they really are. The stress that fanbases put on their players tends to be borderline toxic, especially in bigger markets with louder voices. This issue obviously isn’t limited to big markets, but it’s usually more noticeable when you have a bigger group of people.

However, even though I think what I said back then is still valid, I should make it clear that just because we should treat athletes better in spite of what happens during a game, it doesn’t mean that they are immune from criticism. When you pay players a lot of money, they are generally paid because of their overall profile, with skill being a main focus. Bigger contracts also indicate that the player signing it is an elite player in their league, and that they are among the best of the best. That could mean that they’ve won a championship before, or they’ve been a playoff MVP, or they’re simply a superstar. Maybe that player is all 3, in which case he would likely deserve all of the money he’s being given by his team, especially if he’s on the younger side.

The thing with Auston Matthews, who will be the owner of the richest contract in the NHL starting after this next season, is that while he is definitely a superstar, he hasn’t won a championship, he’s never been a playoff MVP, and he’s often regarded as being worse than the two players directly below him on the contract totem pole. Their names? Nathan MacKinnon, who recently won his first Stanley Cup with Colorado and is often regarded as the second or third best player in the world, and Connor McDavid, who is undoubtedly the best player in the world.

So, you might be wondering why Matthews got paid what he did. Before I get into that, let’s talk about the contract itself. His current contract, which ends after this next season, is a 5 year, $58,195,000 deal which comes out to $11,634,000 per year. Before his new extension, this was the fourth richest contract in the NHL, with MacKinnon, McDavid, and Artemi Panarin (in that order) having a higher salary and overall cap hit. Starting in the 2024-25 season, his new contract will run for 4 years, with the AAV (average annual value) going up to $13,250,000 per year. He will have both the largest salary cap hit and salary in the league, and he take up roughly 16% of Toronto’s cap. That is a lot of money to invest in one player, especially in a league with a hard cap like the NHL.

Now, what exactly distinguishes him from his peers? Why exactly did he get the money that he did, and why is there so much debate on whether he got overpaid or underpaid? Well, allow me to tell you. And buckle up, because this is going to take a bit.

For starters, Matthews is generally seen as the best pure goal scorer in the league right now. His goals per game ranks first overall at 0.668, he was the first since Steven Stamkos in 2011-12 to score 60 goals in the regular season, and he has scored around or above 40 goals per season since he entered the league back in 2016-17. That’s nothing to scoff at, and despite his history of injuries, he’s managed to stay remarkably consistent in that category. He is also one of the Maple Leafs’ best play drivers, and while it’s arguable that he’s the best overall forward on his team, he definitely has the best shot, and that’s what people focus on the most. His ability to create offensive plays and finish what other players start is also quite elite, and his defensive game has also gotten stronger as the years have gone on. Simply put, Auston Matthews is a very good hockey player, and better than almost all of the players currently in the NHL.

So, what’s the problem? You might be wondering why he isn’t making even more than he already will be, given everything I just listed. I mean come on, goal scorers like him don’t grow on trees! They shouldn’t either, because that would be weird.

The problem is how his game in the playoffs differs from his game in the regular season. There is a massive discrepancy, and if you follow hockey, you’ll know that Toronto has been dragged for the last 6-7 years about their playoff performances, specifically those of Matthews and his fellow stars in Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander. For the sake of time, as this is already a pretty long post, I’m going to stick with only highlighting Matthews, as he is meant to be the focus here.

When it comes to playoffs, the players that fans automatically think of tend to be guys like Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and the aforementioned McDavid and MacKinnon. These are guys who are studs in the regular season, and have a history of elevating their play in bigger games, always giving their teams a chance to win. They’re the ones who win the cups (still waiting on McDavid), the ones who are around or above a point per game, and the ones we gush about all the time. Matthews, meanwhile, is virtually absent from those conversations, and is instead regarded as a playoff choker who “doesn’t have what it takes to win”. A lot of that has to do with Toronto’s overall performances in the playoffs during his time there, especially in 2021, but he is often singled out as a large reason for why the Leafs never made it past the first round until these last playoffs.

So, is there any merit to these claims? In my opinion, absolutely. While I wouldn’t exactly call Matthews a soft player, he has shown many instances of not stepping up when his team needs him the most, and his overall playoff totals leave much to be desired. In 50 career playoff games, with 45 of those being in the first round or some equivalent (looking at you, 2020), Matthews has 22 goals and 44 points overall. While I will cut him some slack for his first two years, as well as his most recent one (round 1, not round 2), I cannot find any excuses for his performances ranging from the 2019-20 play-in round to the 2021-22 playoffs.

Now yes, he was over a point per game in 2/3 of those match-ups and he did have some clutch moments during that stretch, scoring the OT winner in game 4 during 2020 to force a decisive game 5, and scoring the game-winning goal in game 5 in 2022 to put the Leafs up 3-2 in the series. However, all of that is overshadowed by the fact that the Leafs ended up losing all 3 of those series in brutal fashion. They were shut out by Columbus in game 5 in 2020, they blew a 3-1 series lead to a Montreal team that lost more games than they won in 2021, and they blew a 3-2 series lead to the back-to-back champs in the Lightning in 2022. In those 3 games, Matthews did end up with 2 total assists, but one of those assists came in garbage time with only a few minutes left to spare, as that game was basically over by the start of the third period. Those are not numbers that you want to see from your highest paid player, especially the one you call your franchise player.

To further prove my point, let’s take a look at playoff numbers from some of the guys I mentioned before, and let’s put McDavid back in the spotlight again, as he and Matthews are often compared to one another. In 49 playoff games, McDavid has 29 goals and 75 points, with the vast majority of those coming in the last two seasons. There are many narratives surrounding McDavid, and the most common one I’ve seen is more about the Oilers as a team than McDavid as a player, that being the question of whether the Oilers are built to win a Stanley Cup or not. While that is a valid question, and one I might tackle at a later date, there is no denying that McDavid shows up in big games. Recent examples are games 6 and 7 against the Kings in 2022, game 5 against Calgary the same year, and game 6 against the Kings this year. In all of those games, McDavid either assisted on the game-winning goal, scored the game winning goal, or was a major factor in his team’s victory. Even in instances of elimination like game 4 against Colorado in 2022 or game 6 against Vegas this year, he still showed up and did everything he could to make sure the Oilers had a chance.

Compared to Matthews, McDavid’s overall play and playoff numbers make him look like a chump. While Matthews has never missed the playoffs as a Leaf, he only has a single round win to his name. McDavid has missed the playoffs 3 times in his 8 seasons with the Oilers, but has won a total of 4 rounds, made it to a conference final with a worse team than Toronto, and has shown far more effort and heart than Matthews has in big moments. The opinion around McDavid’s contract is that it’s a massive underpay, and virtually nobody disputes this because of the type of player he is, along with his titanic playoff numbers. Matthews may have been a big reason why the Leafs finally made it to the second round last year, but that single series win is all that’s really positive about his playoff career thus far. He may have an elite profile, an unprecedented record of scoring goals, and a good hockey IQ, but should he really be paid more than McDavid or MacKinnon?

No. He really shouldn’t be. You can make an argument for the regular season, but even though those 82 games do matter, they stop mattering once the playoffs begin. Anything can happen in the quest for the cup, and it’s up to your big names to take advantage of that and cause some chaos. The only chaos that Matthews and the Leafs have caused is self-inflicted, with their routine underachieving and their cap situation looking even more dire after this new extension kicks in after this year.

To end off, I’m not saying that Matthews doesn’t care about winning, as I’m sure he genuinely wants to win a cup with Toronto and wants to be remembered as a winner. All the great players think that way, but in order for him and the rest of the Leafs to be able to do that, he’s going to need to take a page out of someone like McDavid’s or Crosby’s book in order to really elevate himself to the level at which stars become legends. If Matthews wants to prove the haters wrong and show that he actually deserves his money, then he absolutely must perform when he’s needed most, and he needs to bring Toronto a cup or finals appearance for it to really seem worth it in the end.

The only issue is that Toronto may begin to find it even harder to be competitive like they’ve been the last few years, mainly due to their aforementioned cap issues. They are currently sitting around $10 million over the cap and don’t have enough to keep some of their star players. If they end up trading someone like William Nylander, who has been rumored to be on the chopping block for a while now, there will be even larger pressure on Matthews to play well, as losing Nylander would be a heavy blow to the Leafs. The question is, will he do it? Will there come a time where we are saying his name in the same vein as all of those playoff greats?

I honestly don’t know. Right now, definitely not. But does he have the potential? He definitely does. It’s just up to him to get it done. But until then, I have no problem calling Auston Matthews the most overrated player in hockey.